This is where my guess is pretty much worthless. Last year I thought the Cardinals would win it. Instead, the Reds shocked everyone and took the division while the Cardinals fell 5 games short of them.
What about this year? I would say the Cardinals again thinking they wouldn't surrender the division for a second straight year. However, Adam Wainwright is already out for the year due to a right elbow injury. Also, Chris Carpenter has seen a injury scare so I'm staying away from the Cardinals.
As for the Reds, they still have Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, and the recovering Edinson Volquez. Their hitting is still good with Joey Votto (the NL MVP) and Scott Rolen on offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, have acquired Matt Garza to help out in their rotation and also Carlos Pena for the lineup though it is uncertain how much Pena can do for them.
The rest of the division doesn't seem ready for a takeover. True the Brewers have gotten Zach Greinke but that doesn't seem like it is enough. The Astros seem to just have Carlos Lee who's batting average last year was below .250. And the Pirates... well they're the Pirates and will just stink like they always do (my opinion until they prove otherwise).
I will pick the Cubs for the hell of it although the Reds look like they can easily take this division again provided that Volquez gets his groove back.
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